Last week, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the sixth and final assessment report (AR6) that evaluates the current state and effects of climate change. More than 700 scientists have worked for eight years on a report that contains almost 8000 pages. The most important conclusion? We are currently far from reaching the 1,5C° temperature limit.
Introduction
Sadly, to us and for many other people this was already crystal clear. The hazardous effects of climate change are becoming increasingly evident across all parts of the globe, posing a significant threat to both nature and people. It threatens our health, food security, water supplies, and the environment we depend on. The consequences are particularly severe for those who have contributed the least to greenhouse gas emissions. As it is today, between 3.3 billion and 3.6 billion people already live in countries vulnerable to climate hazards, with majority of the people concentrated in developing countries. The IPCC states that urgent action is needed, or it will be too late to act in the future.
This article should provide a brief explanation about what major problems are arising due to climate change, what challenges we should be aware of for the future, and how can we make sure to keep rising temperatures within the absolute limits. For this we have summarized the 6 most important key findings of the report.
Key findings
1. The earth’s climate has undergone unprecedented changes in recent human history, due to the 1.1C° global temperature rise, which is caused by human-induced global warming.
Undoubtedly, the current global temperatures rise of 1.1C° is already causing noticeable transformations in all regions of the world. The consequences of this are evident in various forms, such as the melting of arctic ice caps, the rise of sea levels which poses a threat to many regions, including the Maldives, and extreme weather events like the devastating floods that occurred in Pakistan during the summer season. The Earth's temperature will continue to rise and the negative impacts on both nature and people will intensify if we persist with the current level of GHG emissions. Even if the planet warms up by a small amount, the risks associated with this also increase. For instance, half a degree Celsius of warming causes more extreme heat waves, heavy rain, and droughts. Heat waves that used to happen once every ten years will happen more often with every degree of warming, and they will likely be more intense.
Additionally, this kind of warming also makes it more likely that we will reach tipping points. Once these tipping points are transgressed, they can trigger self-reinforcing feedback loops that makes the issue of global warming even worse. For instance, the thawing of permafrost or extensive forest dieback can lead to a more rapid increase in the Earth's temperature. It is therefore crucial to take decisive action to mitigate the causes of climate change to prevent these negative feedback loops from becoming a reality.
2. The effects of climate change on people and nature are more extensive than what we thought and will continue to intensify.
Sadly, the latest report warns that the harmful impacts of climate change are already worse than expected. Human-caused climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. This has led to widespread adverse impacts, losses, and damages to both nature and people and forcing millions of people to move from their homes each year. The IPCC states that even limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius is not safe for everyone, and overshooting that target, even temporarily, could have severe and irreversible consequences. Nowadays, already half of the world's population is facing severe water shortages for at least a month each year. Higher temperatures are enabling the spread of diseases such as malaria, and agricultural productivity has dropped significantly in many parts of the world. This stresses the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible to limit the damage caused by climate change.
3. Some losses and damages caused by climate change are too severe to be recovered, making adaptation complex.
According to the report, there are many vulnerable people and ecosystems that are already struggling to adapt to consequences climate change. Effective adaptive measures exist, but economic, political and social obstacles constrain implementation. These include a lack of technical support or inadequate funding that does not reach communities where it is most needed. As the planet continues to warm, the adaptation solutions that are currently viable and successful will become more limited and less effective. The consequences of this shift will include greater losses and damages, and more human and natural systems that reach their limits of adaptability. However, there is perspective. With flexible, multi-sectoral, social inclusive, and long-term planning and implementation, we can avoid maladaptation and create strategies that benefit many different sectors, people and ecosystems simultaneously.
4. Adaptation and mitigation measures are effective for building resilience, but there’s lack of finance to scale solutions.
Despite climate policies in 170 countries recognizing the importance of adapting to climate change, many of those countries have yet to implement measures to build resilience against it. One of the reasons is that funding has been very insufficient, accounting for only 4% to 8% of the required climate finance. Current measures are usually small-scale and reactive, while developing countries alone will need $127 billion per year by 2030 and $295 billion per year by 2050 to adapt to climate change.
Another critical issue the IPCC has found is that finance for fossil fuels still greatly exceeds that directed towards climate change mitigation and adaptation initiatives. Although there's enough money in the world to close the investment gap, obstacles exist in directing those funds towards climate-friendly projects. Despite that annual climate finance increased by 60%, a massive increase in sustainable funding is necessary to meet the targets set for reaching net zero targets. Particularly developing countries face the widest gap and will require significant increases in mitigation and adaptation investments.
However, there are aspects to be hopeful about. According to the IPCC, proven adaptation solutions are readily available at a relatively low cost and by scaling them up, they can simultaneously provide sustainable development benefits. Ecosystem-based adaptation measures, such as protecting and restoring ecosystems and promoting sustainable agricultural practices, can help communities to adapt to extreme events that already impact their lives. In addition, it can provide multiple benefits, including restoring biodiversity and improving food security. Involving indigenous people and local communities is crucial for the success of these measures.
5. Global emissions will peak before 2025.
According to the report, there’s a 50% chance that global temperatures will reach the 1.5C° in the coming decades considering all scenarios and modelled pathways. However, keep focusing on this prescribed level would require rapid and sustained reductions in GHG emissions within the coming two decades without any overshoot. No overshoot means a maximum of 510 GtCO2 (gigaton) emissions before reaching net zero in 2050. To achieve this, the modelled pathways suggest that emissions must peak before 2025 and, subsequently, there should be a rapid reduction in these emissions, with a decline of 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035, compared to the levels recorded in 2019. Considering the current progression, it is unlikely this will happen as existing and planned fossil fuel extraction could surpass this limit by 340 GtCO2, reaching a total of 850 GtCO2.
6. 10 Key solutions for mitigation pathways
To keep targets in sight, there’s great need for drastic emission reduction schemes across all sectors. The IPCC outlines ten key solutions that will require significant changes across society. To achieve this, it is of high importance that strict policy measures and transformative adaptation measures are being implemented at the same time to stimulate this systemic change. For example, research shows that local reforestation projects or regenerative agricultural practices can improve resilience to climate impacts, while simultaneously advancing mitigation.
The 10 outlined solutions are as followed:
- Retire all coal plants
- Invest in clean energy & efficiency
- Retrofit and decarbonize buildings
- Decarbonize cement, steel & plastic
- Shift to electric vehicles
- Promote public transport, biking and walking
- Decarbonize the aviation and shipping industry
- Halt deforestation on a global scale
- Reduce food loss and waste and invest in sustainable agricultural practices
- Eat more plant-based and less meat and dairy
7. Investing in carbon removal projects is essential.
Another important factor the IPCC highlights is that, in all scenarios, achieving net zero targets requires investments in both carbon reduction and removal initiatives. Carbon removal projects remove (historically emitted) CO2 directly from the atmosphere. Those methods include both nature-based solutions, such as sequestering and storing carbon in trees and soils (e.g. reforestation, agroforestry, wetland restoration) and innovative technologies that extract carbon straight from the atmosphere (e.g. direct air capture). Some climate models say removal approaches should result in 5 to 16 billion metric tons per year globally by 2050. Nevertheless, the panel still emphasizes that the faster we reduce our emissions in the short-term, the less we must rely on carbon removal in the future.
How to move further from now?
There are critiques on the report. The IPCCs affirms that we can still ensure a safe and liveable future, while according to some experts this would be too optimistic. They argue that without drastic system transformations we won’t be able to reach the 1.5C° goal. Some even say that 1.5C° is already out of scope regardless of every possible mitigation scenario. Our view is to stay optimistic since we’re also observing many hopeful developments and 1.6° is always better than 1.7C°. Renewable energy investments are rising at a fast pace. Governments and businesses become more transparent. And ambitious and legal rights and protection of natural ecosystems, species and indigenous communities are being recognized more and more.
To achieve significant reduction, unprecedented system change is needed. The IPCC report provides governments and businesses clear pathways and readily available solutions that are within everyone’s reach. There are fast, feasible and (cost) effective solutions available now for reducing GHG emissions, which would decrease the expected harm and destruction to both humans and the environment.
Eventually, those solutions could also lead to co-benefits that help to restore our ecosystems (as the biodiversity crisis also requires top priority) and will lead to healthier and more resilient communities. For instance, maintaining natural ecosystems, restore them through (re)afforestation and sustainable forest management, and promoting carbon sequestration in the agricultural sector, can greatly help meet climate goals each year. Combining this with scaling up sustainable financing, investing in international cooperation, promoting enhanced technology and emphasizing equitable solutions in the years to come, particularly in the most hazardous regions, we can prevent such extreme risks and create a sustainable future for all.
Check out our flight compensator, and explore its benefits and usage in our flight compensator blog.
